Table of Contents
“Buy on data; sell on the launch" is an investment strategy often used in biopharma, referring to the idea of purchasing stocks based on promising clinical trial data and then selling the stock at the time of a product launch. Although positive clinical trial results for efficacy and safety often drive excitement and boost stock prices, the launch phase of a new product is fraught with potential bottlenecks and slow uptake, which can temper initial excitement and push stock prices lower.
Challenges
Companies routinely overestimate the differentiation and value of their new products and underestimate the challenges of securing market access and the time and effort it takes to change physician and patient behavior. With payers controlling access and most physicians now employees of either hospitals or private equity, the incentives to adopt new products are often misaligned.
Diffusion of Innovation
The Diffusion of Innovation represents a useful framework for both companies and prospective investors to consider in evaluating the future commercial potential of new products. Comparing a new product’s profile against someone’s current standard of care and evaluating the new product on factors such as relative advantage, compatibility, financial implications, and trialability helps provide a more pragmatic perspective and helps explain why seemingly superior clinical products struggle to meet the ambitious forecasts put forth by companies and investment analysts.
Deeper Dive
To effectively navigate these challenges and better assess a product’s future commercial value, both companies and investors must develop a more nuanced understanding of the evolving dynamics within the healthcare ecosystem. For a deeper dive, be sure to read our recently published BioProcess International article, “Addressing the Problem of Product Revenue Underperformance”.